Game Day Preview: HerdMBB at WKU
This burgeoning rivalry between Marshall and Western Kentucky is pretty fun. Of course it started on the gridiron, but now every matchup between the two programs feels a bit different. I love it. Can never have enough rivalry games where the intensity is kicked up a notch and both teams want to win at all costs.
Marshall (12-12, 8-3) looks to sweep the season-series in men’s basketball this evening at E.A. Diddle Arena and beat Western Kentucky (12-12, 4-7) in Bowling Green, which it has never done (0-7).
Tonight’s match-up, televised by Fox College Sports, should provide for some good basketball and entertainment for both fan bases. Which team will have the bragging rights until the two square off again?
Let’s take a look at the potential rotation Ray Harper will throw at Dan D’Antoni, where the Herd has the edge and may be in some trouble and a prediction on how tonight’s contest will turn out.
Projected Starting Lineup
C/F Ben Lawson 7-1, 230 Jr. 5.3 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 2.33 BPG 58.1% FG
F Justin Johnson 6-7, 235 So. 16.0 PPG (7th-C-USA), 7.8 RPG (6th-C-USA) 61.9% FG (2nd-C-USA)
G Fredrick Edmond 6-4, 205 Jr. 11.5 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 2.35 APG 56% FG (7th-C-USA)
G Aaron Cosby 6-3, 200 r-Sr. 12.2 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 2.0 APG 33.1% FG/35.3% 3FG
G Chris McNeal 6-0, 195 Fr. 5.5 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 3.92 APG (8th-C-USA) 31.5% FG/28.4% 3FG
Key Reserves:
F Nigel Snipes 6-6, 220 r-Sr. 8.5 PPG, 2.8 RPG 45.5% FG/42.5% 3FG
G Marlon Hunter 6-2, 195 Fr. 4.7 PPG, 2.2 RPG 43.8% FG
C Aleksej Rostov 6-10, 240 Sr. 2.7 PPG, 1.9 RPG 51.1% FG
F Anton Waters 6-7, 245 Jr. 3.8 PPG, 3.8 RPG 52.5% FG
Team Stats:
Offense- 77.0 PPG (5th-C-USA), 46.5% FG (3rd-C-USA), 36% 3FG (4th-C-USA), 12.38 ORPG (2nd-C-USA)
Defense- 76.8 PPG (9th-C-USA), 44.6% FG (8th-C-USA), 37.7% (11th-C-USA)
39.4 RPG (1st-C-USA), allow 34.0 RPG (2nd-C-USA), 4.50 BPG (4th-C-USA), 13.50 APG (6th-C-USA)
Biggest Matchup: Justin Johnson
The sophomore did the most damage to the Herd in the first matchup scoring 24 points and doing it on 11-of-13 shooting, mostly on the inside. He put on an absolute clinic and the Herd had no answer for him on defense. Luckily for the Herd, the other Hilltoppers were not providing much support to help Johnson out. Marshall will have to find a way to stop Johnson because I highly doubt Western Kentucky will shoot as poorly from deep as it did again this game (2-of-19 from three). Slowing down Johnson this time around should be priority one. Johnson has scored double figures in 19 of his last 22 games. He gets a lot of easy buckets and is a very good rebounder. James Kelly, Ryan Taylor and the other frontcourt guys who end up playing (Terrence Thompson, Aleksandar Dozic most likely) cannot allow Johnson to shoot almost 85 percent from the field. Kelly and Taylor certainly cannot get into foul trouble, but they can’t slack off on defense when guarding Johnson because he will just keep pounding and pounding if you let him.
Herd advantage: WKU defense
Marshall had a pretty good day the first time around shooting 52.1 percent from the field and 36.7 percent from deep. WKU hasn’t exactly improved much on defense since the last meeting and this of course is where Marshall likes to take advantage. The Herd lives and dies by its offense and will continue to do so against the Hilltoppers who are in the bottom half of Conference USA in the major defensive categories. Marshall will put points up. There is no secret about it. The Herd will put up at least double-digit points more compared to the opponent’s season average and that does not bode well for teams like the Hilltoppers who give up near 80 points per.
Herd concern: One and done
WKU is one of the best teams in C-USA in rebounding overall. The Hilltoppers rebound well on both ends ranking in the top two in team rebounding and rebounds allowed. If you miss a shot the Hilltoppers aren’t going to allow many second-chance opportunities if any at all. The Herd, however, is not one of the better rebounding teams and is dead last in rebounds allowed. Now, that doesn’t mean much if you are shooting over 50 percent from the field and around 35 to 40 percent from three. But, if the shots aren’t falling you have to give yourself some second chance points and WKU does a good job of eliminating many of those opportunities. The Herd doesn’t have to control the boards to win if it is shooting well, but if not Marshall will have to find a way to get in good position to get offensive rebounds and get some easy baskets.
Thoughts:
This game should be closer in terms of the outcome compared to the first meeting in Huntington. I cannot see WKU shooting as poorly as it did from three again. And another major concern is on the offensive glass. WKU is second in the league in offensive rebounding, which could lead to several easy second-chance baskets if Marshall doesn’t do the dirty work and box out.
A couple interesting notes for this game. WKU guard Chris Harrison-Docks of course was dismissed from the program and will not be a factor in this game. Harrison-Docks averaged 10 points per game and was a threat from deep.
Speaking of deep threats, Jon Elmore has now settled in after his poor start shooting when he became eligible. Elmore went 1-for-6 from three in the first meeting, which was his sixth game of the season. In 16 games Elmore is shooting 37.9 percent from deep and that includes shooting 28.3 percent in his first eight games. He has shot 43.1 percent over his last eight and 45.6 percent since the Western Kentucky game. Point is Elmore is shooting well and he was not in the first game and that game was the end of his early slump. Does that mean he will automatically shoot well tonight? No. But it means he has a greater chance to be a threat in this game from deep and provide more damage, which he didn’t the first go-around.
Prediction:
Marshall 92-83
I could easily see Marshall extending its streak of 100 points scored to three games, but I think the longer layoff may lead to a slow start. Being on the road has not always been friendly to the Herd, but they are still putting up points no matter what gym they are playing in and I don’t see any reason it will stop in Bowling Green.
I cannot believe the Hilltoppers will struggle from deep again and that should lead to a closer game. The rebounding prowess and shooting ability of the Hilltoppers should worry Herd fans. WKU gets a lot of easy baskets from guys like Johnson, Lawson and Edmond in their main rotation. The Hilltoppers shot well over 50 percent in the first matchup and there is a good chance it will happen again.
Even though I think the layoff could lead to a cold start for the Herd on offense I think the team will heat up in the long run and pulls away at the end to get one-game above the .500 mark and one step closer to a top-four seed.
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